2027 Outlook
Best Markets for Real Estate Investors in 2027
There's no single best market. It depends on what you're buying for. The industry's 2027 "markets to watch" list is led by Dallas-Fort Worth, Nashville, Miami, Raleigh-Durham and San Francisco. Flips earned the most in mid-2026 in Pittsburgh, Buffalo, New Orleans, Virginia Beach and Philadelphia. Rents grew fastest in the Bay Area, Virginia Beach, Chicago, Cleveland and St. Louis. And buyers hold the most leverage going into 2027 in Miami, Nashville, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.
Market data as of November 4, 2026. Zillow, Cotality and Redfin's monthly data run through September 2026. Apartment List, Zumper, Realtor.com and Redfin's weekly data run through October 2026, and ATTOM's flip data through the second quarter of 2026. We'll update this page as the year-end reports come out, January through March 2027.
Where capital says it wants to be
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027, from PwC and the Urban Land Institute, drew on nearly 1,500 survey and interview participants (October 27, 2026). Its markets to watch, in order:
- Dallas-Fort Worth (first for the third straight year)
- Nashville
- Miami
- Raleigh-Durham
- San Francisco
- Houston
- Manhattan
- Jersey City
- Tampa and St. Petersburg
- Charlotte
Further down the list: Northern New Jersey 15, Columbus 19, Knoxville 20, Austin 21, Charleston 26, Boston 27, Greenville 32, San Antonio 34, Seattle 38, Las Vegas 78. Its homebuilding prospects list is led by Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth.
The report notes that the top scores are closely bunched, and that markets ranking high overall "do not necessarily rank highly for homebuilding." Its multifamily chapter names Austin, Charlotte, Nashville, Denver and Phoenix as rent markets hit by new supply, with more than 8 percent of apartment stock in lease-up in Charlotte, Austin and Phoenix, per Yardi Matrix. It names Minneapolis, Columbus and Chicago as steady, with about 300,000 apartment deliveries expected in 2027 (RealPage via PwC).
Where flips made money in 2026
ATTOM's Q2 2026 Home Flipping Report (October 1, 2026) put the typical national gross margin at 21.5 percent on a $60,526 gross profit, down from 27.6 percent a year earlier. ATTOM's margin is gross profit over the purchase price, which it calls gross ROI. Among metros with more than a million people:
- Best margins: Pittsburgh 81.5 percent, Buffalo 76.6 percent, New Orleans 75.0 percent, Virginia Beach 63.4 percent and Philadelphia 62.8 percent.
- Worst margins: San Antonio (a 0.3 percent loss), Dallas 1.8 percent, Austin 2.8 percent, Houston 3.7 percent and Salt Lake City 4.7 percent.
- Highest flipping rates: Cleveland 10.4 percent of sales, Columbus 9.5 percent, Memphis 9.5 percent, Dallas 9.4 percent and Phoenix 8.9 percent.
By state, Pennsylvania led at 65.6 percent gross ROI, and Texas sat near the bottom at 2.8 percent on $8,083 of gross profit. Mississippi was the only state where the typical flip lost money, and Ohio had the highest flip rate, 9.6 percent of sales (ATTOM, October 2, 2026).
Purchase price made the difference. Margins ran 28 percent on homes bought for $100,000 to $200,000, 26 percent at $200,000 to $300,000 and 20 percent at $300,000 to $400,000. Under $50,000, the typical flip lost 38 percent (ATTOM, October 1, 2026). The fix and flip in 2027 outlook has the full state table.
Where rents grew
Zillow's typical U.S. rent was $1,932 in September 2026, up 2.7 percent year over year (Zillow, October 6, 2026). Apartment List's national median was $1,384 in October, up 0.1 percent year over year, its first positive annual reading since mid-2023. Vacancy was 7.0 percent, and 32 percent of properties offered a month or more free (Apartment List, October 28, 2026). Zumper's October one-bedroom median was $1,519, up 0.5 percent (Zumper, October 27, 2026).
The leaders, year over year, across Zumper's one-bedroom median and Apartment List's and Zillow's metro rents:
- San Francisco (Zumper +26.2 percent; Apartment List +13 percent)
- Virginia Beach (Zumper +16.4 percent; Zillow +7.1 percent)
- Chicago (Zumper +12.4 percent; Zillow +4.7 percent)
- Cleveland (Zumper +9.2 percent; Zillow +4.5 percent)
- St. Louis (Zumper +8.8 percent; Zillow +4.1 percent)
- Milwaukee (Zillow +5.1 percent)
- Pittsburgh (Zumper +6.3 percent)
The laggards:
- San Antonio (Zumper -8.7 percent; Apartment List -3.8 percent; Zillow -0.7 percent, the only negative in Zillow's 50 largest metros)
- Nashville (Zumper -7.0 percent)
- Denver (Zumper -6.8 percent; Zillow flat)
- Tampa (Zumper -4.5 percent)
- Orlando (Zumper -4.0 percent)
- Austin (Apartment List -1.2 percent, improving from -6.2 percent in 2025)
- Charlotte (Zumper -1.4 percent)
- Phoenix (Zumper -0.8 percent)
Where prices held and where they slipped
Cotality's September 2026 index was up 1.7 percent year over year nationally and down 0.3 percent for the month, the biggest monthly drop since 2022. Its 12-month forecast is +0.9 percent. By state:
- Strongest states: Illinois +6.9 percent, Rhode Island +6.4, Connecticut +6.0, New Jersey +5.1 and Ohio +4.9.
- Weakest states: Washington -1.0 percent, Wyoming -0.7, Texas -0.4 and Hawaii -0.1 (Cotality via WRE News and ROI-NJ, November 3, 2026).
Zillow's September home value index was $366,913, up 1 percent year over year and down 0.5 percent for the month, with 27.4 percent of listings carrying a price cut (Zillow, October 6, 2026).
In the four weeks to October 25, 2026, Redfin's median sale price turned negative year over year (-0.1 percent) for the first time in more than three years. Pending sales fell 15.9 percent to 276,352, the lowest in Redfin's weekly records, which go back to 2021, and months of supply reached 4.5 (Redfin, October 29, 2026).
For 2027 home prices, Fannie Mae forecasts +0.6 percent and Goldman Sachs +0.8 percent. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects price growth to slow in 2027 before picking up again in 2028 (Fannie Mae ESR, October 2026; Goldman Sachs Research, October 30, 2026; MBA via HousingWire, October 11, 2026).
Where buyers hold the leverage
Sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6 percent nationally in September 2026, about 1.51 million listings against 929,000 buyers. That's the widest gap in Redfin's records, which go back to 2013:
- Deepest buyer's markets (more sellers than buyers): Miami 158.9 percent, Nashville 152.3, Houston 134.6, Austin 130.9, San Antonio 125.6, Las Vegas 125.5, Orlando 123.0, Dallas 121.9, Fort Lauderdale 117.8, Atlanta 110.4, Fort Worth 108.3, Phoenix 105.8 and Tampa 103.7.
- The only seller's markets: Nassau County NY, Montgomery County PA, Newark, Milwaukee and San Francisco (Redfin, October 14, 2026).
Realtor.com's October report has active inventory up 7.4 percent year over year, new listings down 7.5 percent and the median list price down 2.2 percent. Austin's list price was down 10.2 percent, the weakest of any large metro (Realtor.com, November 4, 2026).
There's also a new federal rule for 2027 buyers. From January 7, 2027, entities that, counted with their affiliates, control 350 or more single-family homes generally can't buy more without an exception. Investors below that line aren't covered, and covered entities can still buy from them through January 7, 2029 (21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, Public Law 119-101, Section 1001; Treasury's proposed rule, 91 FR 66799, October 23, 2026).
Investors bought 27 percent of homes sold in the second quarter of 2026, the lowest share since the first quarter of 2025. Owners of one to five properties hold 92 percent of investor-owned single-family homes. Owners of 1,000 or more hold 2 percent, and they were net sellers for a tenth straight quarter (BatchData via Inman, October 15, 2026). So the ban that starts January 7, 2027 touches only a thin slice of buyers.
Where rental yields are highest
Gross rental yield is the first thing to check on a DSCR loan. ATTOM's 2026 single-family rental report (March 5, 2026) measured three-bedroom yields by county:
- Highest yields: St. Clair County, Illinois (14.5 percent), Mobile, Alabama (13.6), Peoria, Illinois (12.5), St. Louis County, Minnesota (11.6) and Trumbull County, Ohio (11.5).
- Highest among large counties: Suffolk County, New York (10.8), Cook County, Illinois (9.8), Cuyahoga County, Ohio (9.5) and Harris County, Texas (8.0).
- Lowest yields: Walton County, Florida (3.1), Santa Clara County, California (3.1) and Williamson County, Tennessee (3.3).
The table below adds our own calculation on Zillow's September 2026 data (typical rent times twelve, divided by typical home value) for each of our metros that Zillow covers. It's a gross figure, before taxes, insurance and vacancy, so use it to compare markets, not to qualify a loan.
On these numbers, the coverage math for 2027 is easiest in Pittsburgh, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Memphis and Oklahoma City (6.8 to 7.7 percent) and hardest in Denver, Austin, Phoenix, Raleigh, Milwaukee, Nashville, Boston and Las Vegas (4.1 to 4.9 percent). Run any specific property through the DSCR calculator.
Swipe the table sideways for all four measures.
| Market | Home value | Rent | Gross yield | More sellers than buyers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | $376,082-1.6% | $1,843+2.1% | 5.9% | +110.4% |
| Austin | $416,134-3.9% | $1,603+0.7% | 4.6% | +130.9% |
| Baltimore | $397,069+0.2% | $1,937+2.7% | 5.9% | +15.1% |
| Birmingham | $261,464+2.3% | $1,404+2.9% | 6.4% | n/a |
| Boston | $728,324+1.9% | $2,987+2.3% | 4.9% | +7.4% |
| Charlotte | $381,219-1.2% | $1,735+1.4% | 5.5% | +81.6% |
| Chicago | $358,074+5.1% | $2,163+4.7% | 7.2% | +6.5% |
| Cincinnati | $306,903+1.9% | $1,522+2.8% | 6.0% | +51.9% |
| Cleveland | $251,602+3.8% | $1,440+4.5% | 6.9% | +18.5% |
| Columbus | $328,082+1.1% | $1,525+2.9% | 5.6% | +51.3% |
| Dallas (and Fort Worth) | $359,178-1.9% | $1,659+0.7% | 5.5% | +121.9%Fort Worth +108.3% |
| Denver | $557,532-1.7% | $1,9000.0% | 4.1% | +67.9% |
| Detroit | $264,838+1.5% | $1,514+4.2% | 6.9% | +37.9% |
| Fort Lauderdale | In Miami | In Miami | In Miami | +117.8% |
| Hartford | $401,131+5.0% | $1,998+3.5% | 6.0% | n/a |
| Houston | $303,039-1.8% | $1,638+0.1% | 6.5% | +134.6% |
| Indianapolis | $292,332+0.9% | $1,528+3.5% | 6.3% | +38.9% |
| Jacksonville | $351,310+0.2% | $1,680+2.2% | 5.7% | +80.2% |
| Kansas City | $327,069+3.5% | $1,534+3.8% | 5.6% | +22.6% |
| Las Vegas | $422,534-2.7% | $1,732+0.5% | 4.9% | +125.5% |
| Memphis | $241,929-0.2% | $1,393+1.1% | 6.9% | n/a |
| Miami | $478,411+0.9% | $2,654+1.8% | 6.7% | +158.9% |
| Milwaukee | $386,695+4.9% | $1,549+5.1% | 4.8% | -16.1%seller's market |
| Minneapolis (Minnesota page) | $389,947+1.7% | $1,736+3.5% | 5.3% | +26.5% |
| Nashville | $449,730-0.6% | $1,803+1.2% | 4.8% | +152.3% |
| Newark (New York metro) | $733,217+4.8% | $3,546+4.2% | 5.8% | -18.5%seller's market |
| Oklahoma City | $243,587+0.7% | $1,384+2.4% | 6.8% | n/a |
| Orlando | $383,561-1.2% | $1,929+0.8% | 6.0% | +123.0% |
| Philadelphia | $387,304+2.4% | $1,903+3.3% | 5.9% | +56.4% |
| Phoenix | $440,821-1.1% | $1,720+1.0% | 4.7% | +105.8% |
| Pittsburgh | $229,242+0.4% | $1,467+3.5% | 7.7% | +61.6% |
| Raleigh | $427,969-1.8% | $1,669+1.4% | 4.7% | n/a |
| Richmond | $394,095+2.5% | $1,706+2.5% | 5.2% | n/a |
| San Antonio | $273,869-1.9% | $1,415-0.7% | 6.2% | +125.6% |
| St. Louis | $274,292+3.1% | $1,427+4.1% | 6.2% | +24.5% |
| Tampa | $357,180-0.5% | $1,991+0.4% | 6.7% | +103.7% |
| West Palm Beach | In Miami | In Miami | In Miami | +67.8% |
| United States | $366,913+1% | $1,932+2.7% | 6.3% | +62.6% |
Sources: Zillow Home Value Index and Zillow Observed Rent Index, September 2026 (Zillow, October 6, 2026); Redfin buyers and sellers, September 2026 (Redfin, October 14, 2026). Data through September 2026. Home values and rents are Zillow's, each with its one-year change beneath, and sellers over buyers is Redfin's. Gross yield is a Pinnacle Funding Network calculation on the two Zillow figures (annual rent divided by home value), before taxes, insurance and vacancy. "n/a" means the source doesn't report the market, and "In Miami" means Zillow counts the city inside its Miami metro. The flip margins and the Emerging Trends ranks are in the lists above. Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach sit inside Zillow's Miami metro, Fort Worth inside Dallas and Newark inside New York. These markets aren't among the 50 metros in the Zillow and Redfin reports cited here: Charleston, Colorado Springs, Greenville, Knoxville, Montgomery, Savannah, Tucson, Winston-Salem and Jersey Shore (Emerging Trends ranks Knoxville 20, Charleston 26 and Greenville 32). The 22 vacation rental markets are on the short-term rental outlook.
What changes on January 1, 2027
Two state property tax rules change at the turn of the year, and both hit investor property.
In Texas, the 20 percent annual appraisal cap on non-homestead real property valued at $5,320,000 or less (the 2026 threshold) expires December 31, 2026, and so does the constitutional provision behind it (Texas Tax Code Section 23.231(k); Texas Constitution, Article VIII, Section 1(n-1)). Reviving the cap would take a new constitutional amendment, passed by two-thirds of each chamber of the 90th Legislature, which convenes January 12, 2027, and approved by voters. Expect 2027 appraisal notices on investor property to carry no 20 percent cap.
In Florida, Amendment 3 passed on November 3, 2026 with about 62 percent of the vote in unofficial returns (60 percent was needed). From the 2027 tax roll, the annual assessment increase on non-homestead property is capped at 5 percent for non-school levies, down from 10 percent (Florida Chamber of Commerce; News4JAX, November 4, 2026).
The federal large-investor purchase ban starts January 7, 2027. The full calendar is on the January 1, 2027 page, and the state detail on the Texas and Florida market pages.
The rest of the 2027 outlook
- DSCR and fix and flip rates in 2027What the forecasters expect, and what moves the rate.
- Fix and flip in 2027Margins, money, materials and the exit.
- Short-term rental and Airbnb financing in 2027Demand, rules and how the loan qualifies.
- The January 1, 2027 calendarFederal, state and local rules, date by date.
All 99 market guides are at Markets. For more than one property, or a big one, see portfolio and blanket loans and jumbo and high-value loans.
Frequently asked questions
The ones where rent covers the payment with room to spare. On Zillow's September 2026 figures, gross yields run 6 to 7.7 percent in Pittsburgh and the Midwest metros (Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati), plus Oklahoma City, Memphis and Birmingham. Yields also clear 6 percent in four Florida and Texas metros: Houston 6.5, Miami 6.7, Tampa 6.7 and San Antonio 6.2 percent. Prices are flat to falling in three of the four. But October data from Apartment List or Zumper show rents falling in San Antonio, Austin and Tampa, so underwrite those on today's rent, not last year's.
On ATTOM's second-quarter 2026 data (October 1, 2026), the best large-metro gross margins were Pittsburgh (81.5 percent), Buffalo (76.6), New Orleans (75.0), Virginia Beach (63.4) and Philadelphia (62.8). By state, Pennsylvania led at 65.6 percent and Texas sat at 2.8 percent. The best margins were on homes bought for $100,000 to $300,000. The flip outlook page has the full state table.
Because they measure different things. Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027 (PwC and the Urban Land Institute, October 27, 2026) ranks markets by where the people it surveyed want to invest, and it puts Dallas-Fort Worth first for the third straight year. ATTOM's flip data (October 1, 2026) measures what a flip earned in the second quarter of 2026, and Dallas returned 1.8 percent. Redfin (October 14, 2026) measures buyer leverage, and Dallas had 121.9 percent more sellers than buyers. So a buyer in Dallas-Fort Worth in 2027 has leverage, and long-term capital still favors the market. A flipper there is working with thin margins.
Across Zillow, Apartment List and Zumper (September and October 2026 data), the leaders were San Francisco, Virginia Beach, Chicago, Cleveland, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. The laggards were San Antonio (the only negative in Zillow's 50 largest metros), Nashville, Denver, Tampa, Orlando, Austin, Charlotte and Phoenix. Emerging Trends 2027 names Austin, Charlotte, Nashville, Denver and Phoenix among the markets hit by new apartment supply.
For most investors, not much. From January 7, 2027, entities that, counted with their affiliates, control 350 or more single-family homes generally can't buy more without an exception (21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, Public Law 119-101, Section 1001; Treasury's proposed rule, 91 FR 66799, October 23, 2026). Owners of one to five properties hold 92 percent of investor-owned single-family homes. Owners of 1,000 or more hold 2 percent, and they were already net sellers (BatchData via Inman, October 15, 2026). An investor below the threshold isn't covered, and through January 7, 2029, a covered investor can still buy from them. The counting rules reach affiliates, funds and joint ventures, and they're still being written. If you invest through a fund or joint venture, check with counsel.
Through the same programs in all of them, within each state's limits. A DSCR loan qualifies on the property's rent against its own payment, up to 80 percent on purchases and rate-and-term refinances. Cash-out runs to 75 percent as standard and up to 80 percent on select programs. In 20 states and the District of Columbia, including Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Ohio and New Jersey, the programs cap cash-out at 75 percent, and each market page shows its state's figure. The credit floor is 660 for most programs, and loans run from $55,000 to $5 million and close in 20 to 30 days. Pinnacle Funding Network finances investment property in 48 states and publishes 99 market guides. The metros in the table above link to theirs, and the rest are at Markets.
Pinnacle Funding Network is a correspondent lender and loan originator for business-purpose real estate loans. Rates, terms and programs are published as of the month shown and can change. Nothing on this page is a commitment to lend. Market figures come from the sources named beside them and are not Pinnacle Funding Network pricing. Nothing here is legal or tax advice, and your attorney or CPA applies these rules to your situation.
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A note every other week on private lending, market shifts, and what real estate investors are actually doing right now. From The Pinnacle Team.