2027 Outlook
Short-Term Rental and Airbnb Financing in 2027
U.S. short-term rental demand carried momentum into the end of 2026. Forward revenue per available night is up 8 to 11 percent for the fourth quarter, and the growth is coming from occupancy, not price. The rules that change on January 1, 2027 are mostly local (Houston, Hillsborough County, Atlanta and Tulsa), plus Oregon's state lodging tax. The loan qualifies on the property's rental income: a purchase on a market projection for the property, a refinance on your own booking history.
Market data as of November 4, 2026, plus Airbnb's third-quarter results of November 5. Expedia Group's third quarter is from its November 4, 2026 report. Key Data's demand pacing is as of October 4 and November 3, 2026, county lodging tax receipts are as published through October 2026, and ordinances are as published by November 4, 2026. Pinnacle Funding Network terms as of November 2026.
Platform demand
Airbnb's third quarter of 2026 (shareholder letter, November 5, 2026):
- 155.0 million nights and seats booked, up 16 percent
- Gross booking value $27.7 billion, up 21 percent
- Revenue $4.9 billion, up 19 percent
That was a step up from the second quarter (shareholder letter, August 2026):
- 148.3 million nights and seats booked, up 10 percent
- Gross booking value $27.2 billion, up 16 percent
- Revenue $3.61 billion, up 17 percent
- Average daily rate $184, up 5 percent
- North America nights grew high single digits, the fastest in almost three years, with North America ADR up 7 percent and entire homes of four or more bedrooms outpacing smaller units
Expedia Group, Vrbo's parent, reported third-quarter gross bookings of $34.0 billion, up 11 percent, lodging bookings of $24.9 billion, up 10 percent, and 115.7 million room nights, up 7 percent. But it guided fourth-quarter bookings up only 3.3 to 5.2 percent (Expedia Group release, November 4, 2026). On the earnings call that day, management cited softer demand around the U.S. election cycle and geopolitical disruption to travel in the Middle East and Europe (MarketBeat call summary, November 4, 2026). Expedia doesn't break out Vrbo, and neither company has published a 2027 outlook.
U.S. short-term rental performance
Key Data, which tracks reservation data from about 1.3 million U.S. short-term rental properties, reported (Key Data Q4 2026 U.S. Index via Short Term Rentalz, October 22, 2026):
- Forward revenue per available night (RevPAR) up 8 percent for October, 11 percent for November and 10 percent for December 2026 as of October 4, with December occupancy up 12 percent and ADR down 2 percent to $473
- September 2026 finished with paid occupancy up 13 percent, ADR up 10 percent to $276 and RevPAR up 24 percent to $91
- Third-quarter RevPAR led by the Mid-Atlantic (+16 percent), Midwest (+15 percent) and New England (+12 percent), with Hawaii lowest (+6 percent)
- Short-term rental RevPAR outpaced hotel RevPAR in every region where both were available
Its November 3, 2026 holiday pacing:
- Thanksgiving: RevPAR up 13.7 percent (occupancy up 9.5 percent, ADR $435)
- Christmas: RevPAR down 0.5 percent, with ADR down 5.7 percent to $560, from $647 three years earlier
- New Year's: RevPAR up 16.1 percent (occupancy up 17.3 percent, ADR $615)
Key Data says demand is now contributing more than pricing, "particularly as we head towards December." That's a change. Earlier in the year, pricing drove revenue gains more than occupancy did (Short Term Rentalz on Key Data's second-quarter data, July 28, 2026).
For 2027 itself, there's a survey but no booking data yet. In Key Data's 2027 Vacation Rental Industry Outlook (October 13, 2026), 76.8 percent of 392 professional property managers expected revenue to grow in 2027, 65.2 percent expected occupancy to rise and 55.5 percent expected higher average daily rates.
A separate 2025 dataset of more than 1.6 million bookings found ADR up 1.6 percent, against 2.7 percent inflation. Nearly 72 percent of bookings were for one to three nights, and 32 percent were booked within seven days of check-in (Lodgify 2026 U.S. State of the Industry Report via Short Term Rentalz, January 27, 2026).
Local demand, measured by the tax collector
County lodging tax receipts are the public record of short-term rental and hotel revenue. Nine of the 22 vacation rental markets we cover have a published figure (for Destin, the latest is fiscal 2024):
| Market | County | Public demand figure |
|---|---|---|
| Asheville | Buncombe, NC | FY2026 gross occupancy tax $32.5 million; July 2026 lodging sales +10.8% |
| Destin | Okaloosa, FL | FY2024 bed tax about $43 million (+1.5%) |
| Galveston | Galveston, TX | FY2025 hotel occupancy tax about $1.75 million under its $29.7 million projection |
| Kissimmee | Osceola, FL | Key Data July 4, 2026 holiday pacing (published June 4): occupancy +7.9%, ADR +18.6%, RevPAR +27.9% |
| Myrtle Beach | Horry, SC | Unincorporated Horry County state accommodations tax $7.47 million in FY2025; Myrtle Beach Q3 2025 accommodations tax -10.8% |
| Outer Banks | Dare, NC | FY2025 occupancy tax $46.9 million (-4.24%); 2026 receipts through August +1.15% |
| Panama City Beach | Bay, FL | FY2026 tourist development tax through July $32.5 million, +6.98%; July +13.82% |
| Park City | Summit, UT | 2025 transient room tax down 9%, the largest drop of any Utah county; lodging occupancy down about 11% in the six months to August 2026 |
| Pigeon Forge | Sevier, TN | FY2026 lodging tax projected at $12.2 million, +2.82% |
Sources: Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority (September 30, 2026); Okaloosa County via Get The Coast (November 14, 2024); The Daily News, Galveston (March 10, 2026); Key Data (June 4, 2026); Horry County FY2027 state accommodations tax schedule and MyHorryNews (February 13, 2026); Dare County and Outer Banks Voice (October 20, 2026); Bay County Clerk of Court and Comptroller (TDT report for July 2026); TownLift (January 29, 2026) and KPCW (August 25, 2026); City of Pigeon Forge budget for fiscal 2026 to 2027. Fiscal years are each county's or city's own.
Panama City Beach and Asheville grew into 2026. Park City, Galveston and Myrtle Beach softened on their latest figures. The Outer Banks were about flat in 2026 after a down fiscal 2025, and Pigeon Forge budgeted for modest growth.
We couldn't find a comparable public figure for the other 13 markets: 30A, Big Bear, Blue Ridge, Branson, Breckenridge, Gatlinburg, Gulf Shores, Hilton Head, Lake Tahoe, Palm Springs, Poconos, Scottsdale and Sedona.
How the loan qualifies in 2027
A short-term rental DSCR loan qualifies on the property's income. Coverage requirements across the market have tightened, and files below 1.0x now often need offsetting factors such as more liquidity (National Mortgage News, June 26, 2026).
Through Pinnacle Funding Network:
- Income: a purchase qualifies on a market revenue projection for the property (the lender orders an AirDNA report on it). A refinance qualifies on your own booking history, and a professional STR owner can qualify on trailing bookings.
- Loan size: single-property short-term rental loans go up to $2 million through the STR program. Larger holdings are financed as a portfolio of 2 to 100 properties, each loan up to $5 million, with no cap on the number of loans closed together.
- Rate: STR is a DSCR product, so it uses the same programs and the same published starting rate (as of November 2026, DSCR rates start at 5.8 percent, for the strongest files). An STR file carries its own pricing adjuster, commonly about 0.25 percent.
- Credit: a floor of 660 for most programs, with no separate STR floor.
- Cash-out: up to 75 percent on a short-term rental.
- Reserves: start at 3 to 6 months of PITIA on a standard file and scale up from there, and run 6 months on an STR file with projected income. Cash-out proceeds can count toward reserves on most programs, with carve-outs on larger multifamily. On at least one STR program they don't count at all.
- Closing: a single-property STR loan closes in 20 to 30 days, and clean files can close at the fast end. There's no separate STR close time.
- Rural short-term rentals: financed through select lending partners on properties of up to 20 acres, within the same $2 million single-property cap.
The STR and Airbnb guide and the STR program page have the detail. The jumbo and high-value DSCR page covers the luxury end, within those same caps.
Insurance
- California: the FAIR Plan raised dwelling rates an average 29.1 percent effective October 15, 2026 and had 698,307 policies in force at September 2026 (PNG Insurance, October 1, 2026; California FAIR Plan key statistics).
- Florida: Citizens Property Insurance cut homeowners multiperil rates an average 8.8 percent for 2026. It had shrunk to 216,432 policies by October 30, 2026, from 1.4 million at the 2023 peak, and the state's insurance commissioner expects "more aggressive rate cuts" going into 2027 (Citizens, March 4, 2026, and policies in force, October 30, 2026; Florida Realtors, September 24, 2026; Insurance Journal, September 23, 2026).
- Texas: the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association filed for no rate change for 2027 (TWIA, August 4, 2026).
Short-term rental premiums vary by property and carrier. Get a quote on the property before you set your budget.
What changes on January 1, 2027
Four local changes and one state change:
- Houston begins notifying platforms to remove listings without a city registration certificate (City of Houston; BNBCalc, August 24, 2026). Registration itself has been required since January 1, 2026, at $275 a year.
- Unincorporated Hillsborough County, Florida requires annual registration ($200), a designated contact and inspections for about 3,000 properties. Tampa, Temple Terrace and Plant City aren't covered unless they adopt the ordinance (WUSF, September 3, 2026, on the County Commission's September 2 vote).
- Atlanta removes the rule that limited short-term rental licenses to a host's primary residence and one other unit (adopted 9 to 5 by the City Council in September 2026; Civic Atlanta, September 27, 2026).
- Tulsa's hotel guest tax rises from 5 to 9.9 percent on lodging with five or more rooms, including short-term rentals of that size, after voters approved it on November 3, 2026 with about 57 percent (Tulsa Flyer, November 3, 2026; Tulsa City Council).
- Oregon's state lodging tax rises from 1.5 to 2.75 percent (HB 4134; Oregon Department of Revenue). Local lodging taxes and fees come on top.
Other dates near the turn of the year (Rental Rulebook change log, November 4, 2026, unless noted):
- Cleveland's STR licensing and 10 percent per block density cap, November 28, 2026 (Ordinance 561-2026)
- Palm Desert's hillside permit terminations, December 31, 2026
- Folly Beach's new-license moratorium to February 19, 2027 (Ordinance 27-26)
- The Texas Supreme Court hears the Dallas short-term rental case (No. 25-0748) on December 3, 2026. Parts of the city's 2023 ordinances remain under a temporary injunction (Supreme Court of Texas orders, October 23, 2026; STR Association of San Antonio, October 26, 2026)
- Maui's apartment-zoned phase-out dates (January 1, 2029 West Maui, January 1, 2031 elsewhere) stand under Ordinance 5909. Bill 88, passed by the County Council in June 2026, lets owners of roughly 4,500 of those units seek a designation to continue under hotel zoning (Civil Beat, June 25, 2026)
Florida still preempts outright local bans (Florida Statutes 509.032(7)), and so does Arizona (A.R.S. 9-500.39). Texas has no statewide law that regulates or preempts local short-term rental rules, though the state hotel occupancy tax applies to short-term rentals (Texas Tax Code 156.001). The full calendar for rental investors, including the Texas and Florida property tax changes, is on the January 1, 2027 page.
The rest of the 2027 outlook
- DSCR and fix and flip rates in 2027What the forecasters expect, and what moves the rate.
- Best markets for real estate investors in 2027Where capital is going, where flips paid and where rents grew, with 37 metros side by side.
- Fix and flip in 2027Margins, money, materials and the exit.
- The January 1, 2027 calendarFederal, state and local rules, date by date.
All 22 vacation rental guides are at Markets.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. The property qualifies on its rental income. On a purchase, that's a market revenue projection for the property. On a refinance, it's your own booking history. Through Pinnacle Funding Network, single-property short-term rentals are underwritten up to $2 million through the STR program. They price off the same published starting rate as other DSCR loans (as of November 2026, DSCR rates start at 5.8 percent, for the strongest files), plus an STR pricing adjuster, commonly about 0.25 percent. Most programs have a 660 credit floor, and cash-out goes up to 75 percent on short-term rentals. Larger STR holdings are financed as a portfolio, each loan up to $5 million.
So far, yes, and the growth is coming from more nights booked rather than higher prices. As of October 4, 2026, Key Data's forward numbers had U.S. revenue per available night up 8 percent for October, 11 percent for November and 10 percent for December, with December occupancy up 12 percent and the average rate down 2 percent (Key Data via Short Term Rentalz, October 22, 2026). Airbnb's nights and seats booked rose 16 percent in the third quarter of 2026, up from 10 percent growth in the second (Airbnb shareholder letter, November 5, 2026). Expedia Group was more cautious. It guided fourth-quarter bookings up only 3.3 to 5.2 percent, and on its November 4, 2026 earnings call it cited softer demand around the U.S. election cycle and travel disruption abroad. Neither company has published a 2027 outlook.
Most of them are local. Houston starts telling platforms to remove listings without a city registration certificate. Unincorporated Hillsborough County, Florida requires annual registration and a designated contact. Atlanta drops the rule that limited short-term rental licenses to a host's primary residence plus one other unit. Tulsa's hotel guest tax rises from 5 to 9.9 percent on lodging with five or more rooms. Statewide, Oregon's lodging tax rises from 1.5 to 2.75 percent (HB 4134). Florida and Arizona still preempt outright local bans. Texas has no statewide law that regulates or preempts local short-term rental rules, though its hotel occupancy tax applies to them.
On a purchase, the lender orders a market revenue report on the property and qualifies the loan on that projection. On a refinance, the file uses your own booking history, and a professional STR owner can qualify on trailing bookings.
Reserves start at 3 to 6 months of PITIA on a standard file and scale up from there. On an STR file qualified on projected income, they run 6 months. Cash-out proceeds can count toward reserves on most programs, with carve-outs on larger multifamily. On at least one STR program they don't count toward reserves at all, so ask before you plan on it.
The same as any DSCR loan through Pinnacle Funding Network: 20 to 30 days, and clean files can close at the fast end. There's no separate STR close time. What sets the pace is the appraisal with its rent or STR revenue schedule, the insurance binder (allow extra time in hurricane markets) and, on a refinance, pulling together the booking history.
Pinnacle Funding Network is a correspondent lender and loan originator for business-purpose real estate loans. Rates, terms and programs are published as of the month shown and can change. Nothing on this page is a commitment to lend. Market figures come from the sources named beside them and are not Pinnacle Funding Network pricing. Nothing here is legal or tax advice, and your attorney or CPA applies these rules to your situation.
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A note every other week on private lending, market shifts, and what real estate investors are actually doing right now. From The Pinnacle Team.